Last Sunday, after his two top guys, Silvio Dante and Bobby Baccalieri, are gunned down by hitmen, Tony Soprano pulls his remaining crew together and decides to hole up inside a safe house. The final shot of the episode is Tony in bed with an assault riffle laid across his chest. All of the pieces are now in place and David Chase's masterpiece is ready for its final episode.
Fans of the show are left speculating what Tony's fate will be. While there is a chance he could get indicted by the FBI or the show could end anticlimactically with Tony somehow living on unscathed, it seems obvious now that the final episode will end with the death of everyone's favorite New Jersey mob boss.
While Tony's fate seems clear, how he will meet his demise isn't as obvious. David Chase and his writers have planted the seeds for a number of possible assassins, the only question is - who will be the one pulling the trigger this Sunday?
So, I decided to look over the cast of characters and handicap the odds of who Tony's killer will be. I'm not sure whether this means I have a gambling problem or just too much time on my hands, but either way, let's look at the odds and try to figure out who will be holding the smoking gun as the final episode of The Sopranos fades to black this weekend.
Favorites:
Phil Leotardo - Odds: 2/1
Phil is the obvious choice. His relationship with Tony soured when his brother Billy was killed by Tony's cousin. Since then, things have only gotten worse. Phil already put the wheels in motion and sent hitmen after Tony, Sil and Bobby. Two of those hitmen have already taken out their targets, only Tony remains.
However, Tony knows that Phil is out to get him, which is why he is hiding out in a safe house. The New Jersey crew is on the lookout for Phil, so there is also a chance Tony could take him out first.
Peter Paul "Paulie Walnuts" Gualtieri - Odds: 5/1
Paulie Walnuts has already shown disloyalty to Tony in the past. He was the one who told Johnny Sac about the joke Ralphie Cifaretto made regarding Ginny's enormous ass, which nearly put the two families at war in season four. Tony questioned Paulie about this in the episode "Remember When" earlier this season. Tony then later considered offing Paulie when the two of them were alone together on a boat.
It's also important to note that the botched hit on Phil Leotardo was orchestrated by Paulie. Did Paulie tip off Phil ahead of time or send the gunmen after the wrong target? It's possible, but it's also possible that he's just a moron.
Janice Soprano - 7/1
Tony and Janice were never exactly on the best terms, but things have only gotten worse in recent weeks. First, he mocked Janice's promiscuous past during a tumultuous game of Monopoly that ended with Janice's husband Bobby assaulting Tony to defend her honor. Last week, Tony completely dismissed Janice when she came asking for money for Uncle Junior. Then, Bobby was killed in a train store over Tony's beef with Phil. Plus, Janice is no stranger to killing - she shot her ex-boyfriend Richie in the chest after he beat her.
While revenge and her general bitchiness could be motivating factors for Janice to take out her own brother, she seems to dependant on Tony and, more specifically, his money, to actually follow through with it.
Solid Bet:
Carmela Soprano - 10/1
This is my brother's pick for Tony's killer. It makes perfect sense. David Chase has said that he's always had a clear idea of how the show would end and one of the themes throughout the show has been the moral battle inside of Carmela - she loves all of the spoils that being married to a mob boss provides her with, but she feels guilty for endorsing evil. When Tony barged in their house last week while Carmela was having a nice moment with Ro to tell her that she had to pack a bag and hide out, it's possible that the veil finally lifted and Carmela now sees the mob life for what it is.
I could certainly see this scenario happening. There is something poetic in having Tony survive the attempt on his life by Phil, only to have Carmela finish the job.
Outside Shots:
Anthony "A.J." Soprano, Jr. - 15/1
A majority of these final episodes have focused on A.J.'s emotional problems. After being dumped by his girlfriend, he fell into a deep depression and ended up attempting to kill himself in the family pool. A.J. is clearly unstable at this point and I really think he could end up snapping and doing something stupid in the last episode - either killing Tony or perhaps trying to kill Phil or someone in his crew.
Originally, I thought A.J. was a good choice for a dark horse pick, but then I remembered how miserably he failed at his attempt to kill himself or Uncle Junior in the retirement home. Frankly, the kid just doesn't seem to have it in him.
Uncle Corrado "Junior" Soprano - 25/1
On paper, Junior would seem like an obvious choice. He's almost killed Tony twice - at the end of season one, when he hired two hitmen to take Tony out, and at the beginning of season six, when he shot Tony in the stomach.
However, at this point Corrado Soprano is a shell of his former self. Suffering from dementia and weakened by old age and strong medications, Junior doesn't seem capable of hurting anyone. Although, perhaps Janice's request that Tony help with Junior's bills was foreshadowing. If Junior ends up in an inferior, state-run retirement home, he may have an easier time wandering away and crossing paths with Tony one final time.
Artie Bucco - 25/1
Ever since Tony burned down Artie's restaurant, the relationship between these two old friends has never been the same. Artie pulled a shotgun on Tony once before, but he didn't have the guts to pull the trigger. Besides, if it wasn't for a brief cameo in last week's episode, Artie would be all but forgotten in the Sopranos universe. He'd probably have to hit him with his car on accident to make it happen, but never say never with this show.
Dr. Elliot Kupferberg - 30/1
Elliot certainly has a hard-on for Tony Soprano. Ever since he discovered Dr. Melfi was treating Tony, he's clearly been obsessed with the mob boss. It's possible that obsession could end in tragedy. However, the only time Elliot actually encountered Tony, in the parking lot of a college campus, he didn't even recognize him, so he may not exactly be suited for the job.
Furio Giunta - 30/1
For a reason I can't really imagine, Furio fell madly in love with Carmela. This caused his relationship with Tony to sour and it ended up with him heading back to Italy. But, perhaps he and Carmela have remained pen pals all this time and he will return in the final episode to reunite with his beloved (even if she kind of looks like a horse).
Dr. Jennifer Melfi - 40/1
Elliot Kupferberg managed to convince Melfi that all of her years spent counseling Tony have been a giant waste of time. Kupferberg told her that therapy only serves to teach a sociopath how to be a better conman. This caused Melfi to end her professional relationship with Tony, but perhaps her guilt over enabling a criminal will cause her to seek revenge after feeling used all of these years.
Unlikely:
Vito Spatafore, Jr. - 50/1
His dad was outed and killed under Tony's watch, which has clearly been tough for him to handle. But he seems far more likely to listen to Marilyn Manson and write emo poetry, then to actually kill anyone. So Tony should be safe as long as he doesn't have to share a shower with the troubled youth.
"Little" Carmine Lupertazzi, Jr. - 60/1
Killing Tony and backing Phil could be a smart power play for Little Carmine, but he seems far too incompetent to be able to pull something like that off. He's much more likely to stay in Miami and continue to butcher the English language.
Patsy Parisi - 65/1
Patsy never quite forgave Tony for his twin brother's death, but the closest he got to revenge was peeing in Tony's pool. Now that his son is dating Meadow, he and Tony seem to be closer than ever.
Kelli Moltisanti - 65/1
It's possible that Kelli could kill Tony over the death of her husband. But, since David Chase has a problem tying up loose ends and following through with plotlines, I seriously doubt he even remembers who Kelli is.
Irina Peltsin - 70/1
Irina had an affair with Tony during the first two seasons, but eventually he got tired of her and ended things. She appeared briefly in season four with her new man, Assemblyman Ronald Zellman, who Tony beat down with a leather belt in a bout of jealousy. However, since then, she hasn't been seen, which makes her an unlikely candidate.
Angie Bonpensiero - 80/1
See Moltisanti, Kelli.
David Scatino - 85/1
A childhood friend of Tony's, his life was completely ruined when he became indebted to the mob. Tony bled his sporting goods store dry and Davey was forced to flee the state out of shame. He was last seen portraying a colonel on The Unit, so he might have the background knowledge in weapons these days, but he's on the wrong show.
Barbara Soprano Giglione - 100/1
In case you have forgotten, Tony has another sister named Barbara who pops up occasionally. She has avoided the mob life and has mostly stayed away from Tony since their mother's death, but it's possible that she could come back to take out Tony. However, considering they actually changed the actress who played her and most people didn't even notice, it seems highly unlikely.
Meadow Soprano - 150/1
Perhaps her speech to A.J. about how their parents will always love him more because he's their son was a hint of things to come. But, probably not. She's dating Patsy's son, she seems to have made her peace with the mob life.
Father Phil Intintola - 200/1
Before Furio, there was Father Phil. He spent a night in the Soprano household, flirting with the idea of infidelity, but failed to follow through with it. How great would it be for him to choose Carmela The Horse over the church and stop at nothing until he gets her?
Longshots:
The Russian Valery - 500/1
He only makes this list because I'm holding out hope that David Chase will resolve this loose end from "Pine Barrens." But, that will unfortunately never happen.
Jim, a.k.a "Johnny Cakes" - 800/1
Out of everyone on this list, he is by far the dreamiest. Will he seek out Tony to avenge the death of his beloved Vito? Probably not. He'll probably spend the day making Johnny Cakes, fighting fires and combing his mustache instead.
The reanimated corpse of Livia Soprano - 1000/1
For a show that loves strange dream sequences, the zombie angle seems at least remotely possible. Unfortunately, to pull this off, they would actually have to reanimate the corpse of Nancy Marchand, who died in 2000 (or they could bring back that terrible CGI version of her they used in season three).
How will it all end? It's hard to say. But, as any fan of The Sopranos knows, the show's theme song starts off with the line, "Woke up this morning, got myself a gun," which is exactly how the final episode should begin.
Random Thought of the Week:
Rage Against the Machine is back together. This makes me happy.
Joel Murphy is the creator of HoboTrashcan, which is probably why he has his own column. He also has some really hot friends. You can contact him at murphyslaw@hobotrashcan.com.
